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Chapter 3.  Sixteen Fatal Roadblocks against a Purely Natural Formation of Life.

Fatal Roadblock Number 2. Early Termination.  

The next two roadblocks deal with different facets of a common situation. If the various kinds of
organic chemicals in a pre-life “soup” were to combine with each other randomly, most of the
combinations formed would contribute nothing to the formation of life.  The number of useless
combinations greatly exceeds the number of useful combinations.  Furthermore, the biologically
active molecules of living systems tend to be extremely large, being made up of hundreds of small
building block molecules.  Getting a random combination of soup components to come together to
form useful large, biologically useful molecules, is for all practical purposes impossible.  

Instead, most random combinations of raw-building block molecules will simply end up in the tar goo.  
Indeed, this is what is observed experimentally. This is not a neutral issue, for the tar then essentially
“sucks up” all of the available raw materials.  In the next two roadblocks, our goal will be to produce
some rough calculations of the likelihood of a random chemical combination producing tar instead of
something useful.

Most of the chemicals found in living cells are in the form of extremely long chains that are composed
of many small molecules joined together into large molecules.  If the wrong kind of molecule is joined
to the end of a forming chain, then it effectively terminates chain growth and makes the chain
useless.  We will call any kind of molecule capable of terminating a chain a terminator. Unfortunately,
a pre-life “soup” invariably contains many more potential terminators than potential “linkers.” Since
Origin-of-life processes combine chemicals randomly out of the soup, the odds favor chain
termination over chain extension.

The basic structure of an amino acid consists of four parts. (See Appendix A.2.)  A central methane
atom is bonded to a formic acid molecule at one of its ends.  It is bonded to an ammonia molecule at
another end.  Finally, it is bonded to what is called a side-chain along one of its sides.  

Amino acids can connect to each other in a chain.  This chain is made by the ammonia portion of one
amino acid bonding to the formic acid portion of another amino acid.  A molecule of water is released
during this reaction.   The bond formed by this process is called a peptide bond.  It tends to be a
quite strong, relatively stable bond.

Let’s suppose we have a soup made up of a relative high percentage of Miller’s products, ignoring
the tar.   We want to join a series of amino acids together to form a long chain.

Notice, there was a lot more formic acid formed than amino acids.   This is a problem.  If the formic
acid segment of an amino acid can bond to the ammonia molecule at the end of a chain, then an
individual formic acid molecule can also bond to it.  If this happens, there is no longer an amino group
at the end of the chain and the chain has been terminated.  It is no longer capable of growth.   

Here is the problem.  There are a lot of terminators in Miller’s soup. Indeed, the basic components
used to make amino acids will always be present in a soup in a high concentration.  However, formic
acid is not the only possible terminator. All of the various other non-amino acid molecules he
produced are also capable of bonding to a chain and terminating its progress.  If we consider the
ratios of the actual numbers of the various kinds of molecules in Miller’s soup, we find that there are
about 4 times as many terminator molecules as amino acids.   

Let’s assume that in a pre-life soup the various terminators and amino acids all have approximately
the same likelihood of connecting to an ammonia molecule at the end of a chain of amino acids.  This
means that every time something new gets added to the end of a chain, 4 out of 5 times it will be a
terminator and only 1 out of 5 will it be an amino acid.

How hard will it be to get an unterminated chain of amino acids?  Well, pick your length.  Enzymes in
real life normally vary between 200 and 1,000 amino acids each, although a small percentage can be
either shorter or longer.

Let’s take an unusually small enzyme of only 101 amino acids.   What are the odds of getting a
sequence of 100 amino acids added to an initial amino acid without the chain being terminated early?

Well, each time a new link is formed, the odds are four in five that the amino acid will join to a
terminator and only one in five that it will join to another amino acid. So, the odds are 1 in 5 against
getting a single amino acid to link to a first one. To get two additions in a row without termination is 1
in 5 times 1 in 5, or 1 in 25.     Extrapolating, the odds against making all 100 additions without early
termination are 1 in 5^100.    This has the same value as Fatal Roadblock Number 2. Early
Termination.  (If you are unfamiliar with the exponent symbol "
^", click here.

The next two roadblocks deal with different facets of a common situation. If the various kinds of
organic chemicals in a pre-life “soup” were to combine with each other randomly, most of the
combinations formed would contribute nothing to the formation of life.  The number of useless
combinations greatly exceeds the number of useful combinations.  Furthermore, the biologically
active molecules of living systems tend to be extremely large, being made up of hundreds of small
building block molecules.  Getting a random combination of soup components to come together to
form useful large, biologically useful molecules, is for all practical purposes impossible.  

Instead, most random combinations of raw-building block molecules will simply end up in the tar goo.  
Indeed, this is what is observed experimentally. This is not a neutral issue, for the tar then essentially
“sucks up” all of the available raw materials.  In the next two roadblocks, our goal will be to produce
some rough calculations of the likelihood of a random chemical combination producing tar instead of
something useful.

Most of the chemicals found in living cells are in the form of extremely long chains that are composed
of many small molecules joined together into large molecules.  If the wrong kind of molecule is joined
to the end of a forming chain, then it effectively terminates chain growth and makes the chain
useless.  We will call any kind of molecule capable of terminating a chain a terminator. Unfortunately,
a pre-life “soup” invariably contains many more potential terminators than potential “linkers.” Since
Origin-of-life processes combine chemicals randomly out of the soup, the odds favor chain
termination over chain extension.

The basic structure of an amino acid consists of four parts. (See
Appendix A.2.)  A central methane
atom is bonded to a formic acid molecule at one of its ends.  It is bonded to an ammonia molecule at
another end.  Finally, it is bonded to what is called a side-chain along one of its sides.  

Amino acids can connect to each other in a chain.  This chain is made by the ammonia portion of one
amino acid bonding to the formic acid portion of another amino acid.  A molecule of water is released
during this reaction.   The bond formed by this process is called a peptide bond.  It tends to be a
quite strong, relatively stable bond.

Let’s suppose we have a soup made up of a relative high percentage of Miller’s products, ignoring
the tar.   We want to join a series of amino acids together to form a long chain.

Notice, there was a lot more formic acid formed than amino acids.   This is a problem.  If the formic
acid segment of an amino acid can bond to the ammonia molecule at the end of a chain, then an
individual formic acid molecule can also bond to it.  If this happens, there is no longer an amino group
at the end of the chain and the chain has been terminated.  It is no longer capable of growth.   

Here is the problem.  There are a lot of terminators in Miller’s soup. Indeed, the basic components
used to make amino acids will always be present in a soup in a high concentration.  However, formic
acid is not the only possible terminator. All of the various other non-amino acid molecules he
produced are also capable of bonding to a chain and terminating its progress.  If we consider the
ratios of the actual numbers of the various kinds of molecules in Miller’s soup, we find that there are
about 4 times as many terminator molecules as amino acids.   

Let’s assume that in a pre-life soup the various terminators and amino acids all have approximately
the same likelihood of connecting to an ammonia molecule at the end of a chain of amino acids.  This
means that every time something new gets added to the end of a chain, 4 out of 5 times it will be a
terminator and only 1 out of 5 will it be an amino acid.

How hard will it be to get an unterminated chain of amino acids?  Well, pick your length.  Enzymes in
real life normally vary between 200 and 1,000 amino acids each, although a small percentage can be
either shorter or longer.

Let’s take an unusually small enzyme of only 101 amino acids.   What are the odds of getting a
sequence of 100 amino acids added to an initial amino acid without the chain being terminated early?

Well, each time a new link is formed, the odds are four in five that the amino acid will join to a
terminator and only one in five that it will join to another amino acid. So, the odds are 1 in 5 against
getting a single amino acid to link to a first one. To get two additions in a row without termination is 1
in 5 times 1 in 5, or 1 in 25.     Extrapolating, the odds against making all 100 additions without early
termination are 1 in 5^100.    This has the same value as 1 in 10^70.     

How big is 10^70?   It is the number 1 with 70 zeroes after it.  It looks like this:

10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000

By comparison, the odds against you winning a huge lottery and retiring the rest of your life from a
two-dollar ticket are only about one in 100,000,000.

So, this number is really huge.  For instance, there are an estimated 1069 atoms in the Milky Way
galaxy.   A typical amino acid weighs about as much as 100 of these atoms, since the galaxy is
composed mostly of hydrogen.   That means that if all of the atoms in the Milky Way Galaxy could be
converted to nothing but amino acids, that there would only be 10^67 amino acids in the galaxy.  Yet,
the odds against getting an unterminated enzyme are 1 in 10^70.  Notice, this number is 1,000 times
larger than the number of amino acids in our amino acid galaxy.

Now let’s run an imaginary experiment.  There is a very strong tendency for long molecules to stick to
each other and aggregate into tar.  Let’s suppose that every time we get an amino acid sequence
which is terminated early, that it will either go directly to the tar goo or will eventually get modified in
such a manner that it still ends up there.  In other words, if an attempt fails, it becomes tar.

In this situation, the entire mass of the Milky Way Galaxy would normally end up in the tar goo before
we could get even a small, 100 amino acid chain put together.  Notice, this is not the odds against
getting a useful sequence of amino acids capable of functioning as an enzyme.  It simply represents
the odds of getting any kind of sequence, useful or not.  We can now begin to understand why Miller
produced so much tar.  

For you who are mathematically inclined, you might want to try doing the same calculations for an
enzyme of a more realistic size, such as 300 or 400 amino acids in length.  Of course, all this would
do would be to make the impossible even more impossible.

The issue of early termination presents a fatal roadblock against a natural formation of life.